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急速赛车开奖官网网址:Nine Thai Fund: Market Uncertainty Factors Still Exist Recommended to Focus on Consumer Finance Opportunities

时间:2018/6/12 19:49:26  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: A-shares still maintain the pattern of weak volatility in the near term. The two cities returned to weakness after June 7th last Thursday. ...

A-shares still maintain the pattern of weak volatility in the near term. The two cities returned to weakness after June 7th last Thursday. The general decline in the stocks of the sector caused a significant drag on the index. of the stock index fell below the low point of 3041, again. Shenzhen Securities Index is back to the nearest 10,000 point mark.

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As of the close of June 11th, the three major stock indexes have turned green in varying degrees, and only a few plates, including Internet lottery tickets, are on the market.

In combination with the current market environment, the Nine Thai Fund's macro strategy group believes that the preference for consumption is still a more rational choice in terms of configuration, and these segments have the characteristics of both offensiveness and defensiveness due to fundamentals improvement and profitability exceeding expectations.

Affected by multiple factors, market sentiment continued to remain low. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.92%, GEM refers to fell 1.85%, the transaction between the two cities continued to shrink significantly. In terms of industries and themes, household appliances, food and beverages , etc., continued to dominate the consumer sector, with retail sales, and weaker power equipment.

In terms of the current market fundamentals, the match between valuation and earnings is actually in an improved state: the valuation continues to decline, after the melting point in 2016, the second quarter earnings A-share valuation will also rise further; after the early adjustment The reasonableness of valuations of such sectors as , bank , real estate, etc. has increased significantly; the fundamentals and prosperity of the sectors such as automobiles and air-conditioners have exceeded expectations and are slim.

In fact, we believe that the central factor in repressing and influencing the current market lies in the obvious downturn in market sentiment and risk appetite. The factors that suppress and influence the current market sentiment and risk appetite lie in the fact that investors’ expectations and prospects for some of the listed factors are not yet obvious. Some negative factors that exist at the expected level also make investors more willing to take a short position or look for less. Dynamic operating strategy.

On the domestic front, the fundamentals of the economy are yet to be confirmed and confirmed by further signals. The increase in the financial pressure of some local governments has also added a layer of haze to the understanding of economic fundamentals; Concerns about the spread of credit risk and the impediments to credit creation still exist; uncertainties in the strength, rhythm, and coordination of the various departments in the deleveraging process remain to be clear; CDR fund issuance and the impact of unicorn returns on the financial side of the stock market Still to be confirmed.

Externally, the path and rhythm of the normalization of the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB and their impact and impact on market liquidity have continued to receive attention.

Overall, under the current market conditions, we believe that while controlling the overall position level, the allocation is still a rational choice, and it is recommended to focus on industries where fundamentals appear to exceed the expected marginal highlights, and the fundamentals exceed expectations. Profits exceeding expectations have made it easier for these industries to have both offensive and defensive attributes in the current market situation.

Specifically, observe the difference between the current and previous market expectations, and there is a clear positive expectation difference in industries such as air conditioning, heavy trucks, and new energy vehicles. In May, the retail sales volume of air-conditioner offline and on-line sampling tests were all significantly higher than expected. The core factor of the exceeding-expected sales in the air-conditioning industry was the previous market's excessive pessimism about sales channel inventory and air-conditioning production in June. In May, the sales volume of heavy trucks reached 114,000, an increase of 17% year-on-year, and reached a record high. The proportion of construction vehicles continued to rise. The core of heavy trucks' expectations was that the demand growth was significantly better than market expectations. In May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 86% and 126% respectively year-on-year.


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